If you had to graph my feelings about the first round as they day moved along it would look like a steady decline from elated to “blah”. Reaching my desk with Tiger at -6, Steve Marino in the clubhouse at -3, and Justin Rose at -2 more than make up for the Irish twat at nine under. Tiger promptly bogeyed 17 and everything went down hill from there, really. All in all though, a pretty solid afternoon. All my top tens are in pretty reasonable shape (didn’t lose equity at least), Stricker at least didn’t shit the bed like Furyk, and Tiger is a larger favorite than when the round began.
Looking forward, 5Dimes has some truly ridiculous 2nd round match-ups available. I literally had to eliminate all the marginal shit I normally play to avoid having 15x on the line tomorrow.
Furyk/McDowell +120 (1x)
Curtis/Hanson +155 (1x)
Clark/McIlroy +165 (1x)
S.Y.Noh/Daly +110 (1x)
Marino/Dredge +105 (1x)
Furyk & Ogilvy/McDowell -151 (1x)
S.Hansen & Dufner/Dyson -151 (1x)
Glover & Clark/McIlroy -109 (1x)
Apparently Jim Furyk playing 6 shots worse than G-Mac over a single round makes him 5% less likely to beat Graeme. That was disgusting value already and I’m more than happy to lose another two units on Furyk vs. McDowell. Add in Ogilvy, who literally hasn’t done anything since January, is even better.
Repeat that previous paragraph with Tim Clark substituted for Furyk and McIlroy for McDowell and it’s completely accurate.
Simon Dyson won here last year at the Dunhill Links Championship and happens to not be very good at golf. Hansen and Dufner are both better than him while having smaller profiles. This is the most marginal look I have, but it makes enough sense.
Bradley Dredge had a nice round today, but in what universe is he better at golf than Marino? Yeah, probably at St. Andrews. This is a guaranteed loser.
John Daly had a decent round today too, but he played early when the course was easiest and is generally terrible at golf these days. The media is having fun with the idea another long shot former winner is contending, but it’s pretty likely John fires a few +1/+2s to close out the tournament tied for 20th. S.Y. Noh has literally no profile outside obsessed Eurotour fans, but is about as good as PGA Tour average. Fading John Daly has to be some sort of cosmic crime so I’m going to go ahead and grade this as a loss now.
And that brings me to my final pick. I often wonder who this great “public” is that I bet against. You know, the idiot that is happy to lay -170 with Peter Hanson against Ben Curtis. Well, here he is in post #59. Hanson and Curtis are nearly identical in talent over 18 holes. Hanson shot a -6, Curtis a +4. Now, might Curtis be a little less motivated today than yesterday? Sure, but the cut line is likely to be E or even +1 if the course plays harder tomorrow. Curtis can make the cut if he fires a good (not even great round). I’d have to think an athlete who has made it to the point Curtis has wouldn’t just throw in the towel at St. Andrews in the British Open.
I also grabbed the following to win for 1x each.
Sean O’Hair to win +4500
Paul Casey to win +6600
Nick Watney to win +5000
Lucas Glover to win +8000
Camilo Villegas to win +5000
Casey, Villegas, and Glover were pre-tournament leans and O’Hair and Watney are good with the bonus of not having done anything yet this season.
And Rory McIlroy to lose -360 to win 1x.
