The WGC event this week at Firestone kicks off a legitimately amazing two months of golf including the season’s final major, four playoff events, and culminating in The Ryder Cup in October. To kick that off, I’m modifying my strategy concerning choosing outrights; rather than trying to pick a few guys randomly for top tens or top fives, I’m going to just play everything with a decent edge and a decent reason. My bankroll can absorb 20x on the line each week unless I have monumental bad luck (which is likely if not certain).
To win outrights:
Stricker +2800
Furyk +3700
Villegas +9000
Z. Johnson +9000
Ogilvy +13000
Sergio +14000
Stricker and Furyk are pretty standard. They can seemingly win/finish top ten all the time and they’ll never be viewed as two of the best five golfers in the world. They should complain to their PR guys for that. Villegas, Johnson, and Ogilvy have all played below expectations this year, though none of them have played genuinely poorly. All three are around ~1.5-2% per The Saw’s numbers, which is good enough for me getting around 100-1. And Sergio has to be value in any event where he doesn’t have to make a cut. Considered a bunch of long shots, but I’m sticking with the prior strategy of avoiding 400-1s in hopes of keeping variance down. I’ll be on Soren Hansen, Ben Curtis, Lucas Glover, Alex Noren, Mike Weir, Kenny Perry, and others if they start off strong.
And this brings us to Anthony Kim. Kim has played the 2nd best golf of anyone on the planet this year, and is a legit top 10 golfer when he’s healthy and sober. However, there’s no real guarantee he is healthy this week. Sure, he’s had awhile to recover, but I have no idea how long it takes for a golfer’s thumb to heal after surgery; hell, neither did Will Carroll/@injuryexpert when I DM’d him on twitter. I think it’s definitely possible Kim is in this event to secure his Ryder Cup spot and bolster his chances to win the FedEx Cup when he’s healthier in September. And the guaranteed $36,000 doesn’t hurt either. For those reasons, I’m not going to back him this week or next week (when he’ll likely be value again).
Top 5/10s:
Most of the guys I looked at to win the event I took for top 5s or 10s (or both).
Camilo Villegas top 10 +600
Sergio Garcia top 10 +700
Ben Curtis top 10 +1200
Jim Furyk top 5 +700
Steve Stricker top 5 +600
Zach Johnson top 5 +1400
Geoff Ogilvy top 5 +1600
Sergio Garcia top 5 +1800
Ben Curtis top 5 +2800
Kenny Perry top 5 +2500
Lucas Glover top 5 +2500
Soren Hansen top 5 +3500
I’m considering Alex Noren top 10 +2200, Soren Hansen top 10 +1400, and Kenny Perry top 10 +1000. And by considering, I mean waiting to see if I can get a better price.
None of these require much explanation; most fit into the “good, unknown European golfer” or “good, but playing less good lately golfer” categories. All are value, I think.
Continent Winners:
Jason Day top Aussie +425
Geoff Ogilvy top Aussie +325
Appleby won last week and Scott is overrated as all fuck. Day won, but isn’t a name yet, and Ogilvy really hasn’t done shit since January.
Sergio top Euro +2500
This is obvious. There are so many overrated Europeans that Sergio is definitely value.
Round Match-ups:
Tiger -125 Westwood (1st)
Kingston +178 Appleby (1st)
Ogilvy +115 Overton (1st)
Tiger is probably -145/+145 vs. Westwood, but he’s still not BACK and Westwood has been the best player in the world in 2010, which mitigates the fact that Firestone has been Tiger’s bitch. Appleby and Kingston likely have more in common talent wise than most people think, but Appleby just shot a 59 to win a tournament and Kingston is known by approximately 3 people betting on this event. Ogilvy is better than Overton in every universe known to man – despite what 2010 numbers say.
Tournament Match-ups:
Tiger -118 Westwood
Villegas +115 Kuchar
Ogilvy +120 Overton
Z.Johnson +110 Cink
Mahan +105 Fisher
Getting a better price than the individual round match-up? I’ll take it. Tiger probably beats Westwood at least 2/3rds of the time. Villegas was +135 at one point, but reality took hold of the market. Kuchar has played quite well this year, but has a career record of being only good, not great. Villegas is a legit top 10 player in the world having a top 30 season. I’ll take that + points. Ogilvy/Overton was discussed above. I’m not sure in which universe Cink is a better golfer than Zach Johnson, especially when both have played like dog shit this year. Fisher just won and Mahan hasn’t done much since winning earlier. The gap in talent between the two is still pretty significant though.
I only have a quarter of my bankroll on these losers, so that makes me feel better.
