College Football – Week 1: Part 1

This is what I’ve come up with after looking over the weekday card for the past 30 minutes (blatantly ripping of am19psu’s categories):

Strong lean:
Hawaii +21 USC

Weak lean:
USC/Hawaii over 53.5
MTSU +1 Minnesota

Volume play:
Toledo +16 Arizona

Literally everyone on Covers is backing USC in this game and the consensus numbers on Sportsbook Spy and SIA reflect that fact. The common thread seems to be “USC was bitch-slapped, Lane Kiffin will have this team ready to roll Hawaii”. I’ll feel comfortable on Hawaii in a televised game (albeit at 11pm on ESPN).

The over is getting some nice action presumably on account of the previous line of thinking and the idea that Hawaii still has an offense. Good chance I play that if I can get a decent number. Dwight Dasher is MTSU’s entire offense and the line’s only moved 5.5 points? That’s a steal. I liked the Blue Raiders before the suspension and probably like them more now.

There’s two games being played Friday; Temple vs. Villanova (Nova is a road fave BTW) and this one. This game is prime-time on ESPN, pits a shitty MAC team against a BCS conference team, and features a home dog. The Consensus numbers seem to be in line and this will have volume on a night where the only other thing to bet is baseball for the fifth straight month.

I’ll consider anything else I can get a stupid line on, but these seem to make the most contrarian sense. I’ll spit out my weekend leans probably Friday.